Mexico scrambles to boost US water deliveries ahead of next year’s USMCA treaty review

Mexico presently owes the United States much than 1.5 cardinal cubic meters of h2o with conscionable six months near to settee the debt, putting the national authorities successful a hard concern arsenic it seeks to appease its bluish neighbour portion ensuring determination is capable h2o to conscionable the needs of Mexican citizens, agriculture and industry.

The United States authorities is pressuring Mexico to nonstop the h2o north, but the country’s bluish states are successful drought, making it precise hard if not intolerable to comply with the obligations acceptable retired successful a 1944 bilateral h2o treaty.

The 1944 pact governs the organisation of h2o from rivers similar the Rio Grande, shown present successful Ciudad Juárez. (Mario Jasso/Cuartoscuro)

What the result of this concern volition beryllium is not yet clear, but the imaginable for struggle betwixt Mexico and the United States — astatine a clip erstwhile the bilateral narration is already strained — is high.

Mexico’s h2o indebtedness predicament 

Under the Treaty relating to the utilization of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, Mexico indispensable nonstop 2.158 cardinal cubic meters (1.75 cardinal acre feet) of h2o to the United States from the Rio Grande each 5 years. The h2o is transferred done a binational web of dams and reservoirs.

The existent five-year rhythm concludes successful precocious October, but by March 29, Mexico had delivered conscionable 28% of the h2o it is required to nonstop to its bluish neighbour successful the 2020-25 period.

Consequently, Mexico presently owes the United States astir 1.55 cardinal cubic meters of water. That quantity of water, Reuters reported, is capable to proviso a mid-sized metropolis for astir 30 years.

Why is Mexico truthful acold down connected its h2o debt? 

In a connection — drought. The Mexican authorities has said that it has been incapable to fulfill its h2o commitments nether the 1944 pact owed to wide drought that is peculiarly terrible successful the northbound of the country.

Poor infrastructure and increasing section request for h2o person besides had an interaction connected Mexico’s capableness to conscionable its pact obligations, according to Reuters.

Under the treaty, h2o indebtedness tin beryllium rolled implicit into the adjacent five-year rhythm erstwhile drought precludes either Mexico oregon the United States from gathering its obligations to proviso h2o to its neighbor.

That concern looks acceptable to go progressively common.

Reuters reported that the 81-year-old pact “never contemplated clime alteration oregon monolithic concern and cultivation maturation on the borderline fueled by escaped commercialized betwixt the 2 countries.”

“That is the disconnect,” said Vianey Rueda, a University of Michigan researcher who specializes successful h2o issues.

Northern Mexico and the U.S. Southwest are considerably drier than erstwhile the h2o pact was signed implicit 80 years ago. (Crisanta Espinosa Aguilar/Cuartoscuro)

“… There is unit to proceed to abide by a treaty, but there’s truly nary h2o to comply,” she said.

Federico Mancera, a h2o advisor and world astatine CIDE, a Mexico City university, described the pact arsenic obsolete due to the fact that it doesn’t see the impacts of clime alteration and the alteration successful h2o availability. The solution to the existent struggle betwixt Mexico and the United States is to update the treaty, helium told the Expansión quality website.

Pressure from the United States 

In March, for the archetypal clip since the 1944 pact was signed, the United States denied a petition by Mexico for h2o delivery.

In a connection posted to societal media, the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs defended the determination by saying that “Mexico’s continued shortfalls successful its h2o deliveries nether the 1944 water-sharing pact are decimating American agriculture — peculiarly farmers successful the Rio Grande valley.”

In summation to taking the unprecedented measurement of denying Mexico’s non-treaty petition for water, the State Department “continues to impulse the Mexican authorities astatine the highest levels to conscionable its 1944 pact obligations and guarantee predictable h2o deliveries,” a spokesperson for the bureau told Reuters.

Mexico’s continued shortfalls successful its h2o deliveries nether the 1944 water-sharing pact are decimating American agriculture–particularly farmers successful the Rio Grande valley. As a result, contiguous for the archetypal time, the U.S. volition contradict Mexico’s non-treaty petition for a special…

— Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs (@WHAAsstSecty) March 20, 2025

In March, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said successful an interrogation that Mexico is “decimating our farmers portion they’re gathering their agriculture manufacture and breaking the statement nether that 1944 h2o treaty.”

“But nary more,” she added.

Republicans from Texas person been particularly vocal successful their condemnation of Mexico for failing to conscionable its pact obligations.

“Mexico’s repeated nonaccomplishment to uphold their extremity of the 1944 h2o pact has devastated South Texas farmers, hindered the maturation of our Texas agriculture economy, and threatened our nationalist nutrient security,” Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz said successful January.

“Holding the Mexican authorities accountable is the archetypal measurement successful ensuring our farmers person the resources they request to thrive and I volition proceed to enactment to guarantee South Texans are not near to woody with the consequences of Mexico’s non-compliance,” she said.

Reuters reported that the United States has “largely fulfilled” its obligations to nonstop h2o to Mexico, “although caller deliveries person been reduced owed to terrible drought, thing the 1944 accord allows for.”

Could Mexico’s h2o indebtedness endanger the USMCA? 

Citing aggregate sources, Reuters reported connected Wednesday that Mexican officials are “scrambling to travel up with a plan” to summation h2o deliveries to the United States.

Three sources acquainted with the substance told Reuters the urgency is owed to increasing interest that United States President Donald Trump could bring the h2o quality into commercialized negotiations with Mexico.

Trump has already imposed tariffs connected Mexican steel, aluminum and vehicles, arsenic good arsenic imports from Mexico not covered by the USMCA escaped commercialized pact. He has indicated that helium wants to renegotiate the statement alternatively than conscionable reappraisal it, arsenic is scheduled to hap successful 2026.

Ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. person added unit arsenic Mexico struggles to support up with h2o deliveries. (International Container Terminal Services)

A Mexican root who works connected h2o issues told Reuters that determination are adjacent concerns successful Mexico that Trump could terminate the USMCA owed to the Mexico’s h2o debt. The root said the contented has go “very political.”

Another enactment for Trump could beryllium to usage tariffs to unit Mexico to conscionable its h2o commitments. He has already demonstrated helium is consenting to usage protectionism to efficaciously unit Mexico to ramp up enactment against the travel of fentanyl and migrants to the United States.

Last month, Texas Senator Ted Cruz expressed assurance that the United States volition get the h2o it is owed.

“I judge with President Trump successful bureau and the caller administration, we are going to get the water. Mexico is going to comply. Ignoring the pact volition nary longer beryllium an enactment for Mexico,” helium said.

A 2nd Mexican root with cognition of the quality told Reuters that Mexico hopes to scope an statement with the United States “in the adjacent fewer weeks” successful bid to forestall the contented from affecting commercialized negotiations. The Mexican authorities is aiming to negociate amended trading conditions for Mexico — i.e. unafraid the suspension of U.S. tariffs that are presently levied connected Mexican goods.

The root warned that “the expectations of the U.S. should beryllium grounded successful reality.”

“We cannot present h2o that does not exist,” the idiosyncratic told Reuters.

The quality bureau reported that “with the U.S.-Mexico relations already frayed implicit security, migration and tariffs, the 2 countries could present beryllium connected a collision people implicit h2o too, adding to Mexico’s woes arsenic it struggles to navigate a minefield of issues with the Trump administration.”

Attempt to appease the US angers bluish states 

President Claudia Sheinbaum past week told reporters that her authorities was successful discussions with its U.S. counterpart and “will comply with the pact spot by bit.”

Reuters said it was told by 8 sources that Mexico is moving to summation h2o deliveries to the United States earlier the existent five-year pact rhythm comes to an extremity successful October.

Six of those sources told Reuters that successful bid to summation its h2o deliveries Mexico volition apt request to marque usage of a arguable amendment inserted into the 1944 pact past year.

Under a caller pact provision, the national authorities could prehend h2o belonging to bluish states to marque up for shortfalls successful h2o deliveries to the U.S. (Cuartoscuro)

The amendment empowers the Mexican authorities to instrumentality other h2o from states successful bid to conscionable its h2o transportation obligations.

Water successful the bluish borderline states of Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua and Tamaulipas is specifically successful the sights of the national government, according to six sources who spoke to Reuters.

“In caller weeks, astatine slightest 1 gathering has taken spot betwixt authorities governments and the national h2o authorization discussing however to summation Mexican deliveries to the United States,” the quality bureau reported. “… Tension is gathering some with the U.S. and wrong Mexico,” Reuters added.

None of the 4 borderline states mentioned supra is blessed astir the national government’s evident plans for their water, according to Raúl Quiroga, Secretary of Hydraulic Resources for Social Development successful Tamaulipas.

He said that successful a gathering with national authorities representatives past month, officials from Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua and Tamaulipas each protested the pact amendment that allows their h2o to beryllium taken without their consent nether definite circumstances.

Mario Mata, the enforcement manager of Chihuahua’s h2o council, said the authorities is considering launching ineligible enactment against the pact amendment.

Of the states that could look national h2o seizures, Chihuahua has been the hardest deed by the existent drought. (Conagua)

Tension betwixt the national authorities and states implicit h2o is not a new. In 2020, a precocious ranking overseas affairs authoritative accused past Chihuahua politician Javier Corral of failing to comply with an statement with the national authorities to nonstop h2o to the U.S.

Mexico narrowly met its h2o transportation obligations successful the 2015-20 pact period, but it appears astir definite it volition neglect successful this existent cycle.

A Mexican authoritative told Reuters that the national authorities has already agreed to nonstop 150.48 cardinal cubic meters of h2o to the United States and is moving connected a program to present an further 99.91 cardinal cubic meters. But adjacent if that h2o is delivered, Mexico would inactive autumn much than 60% abbreviated of gathering its pact obligations.

Of important interest successful Mexico is that determination is nary warrant that the United States volition beryllium appeased by lone receiving astir 40% of the h2o Mexico is required to proviso successful each five-year pact cycle.

‘To present h2o close present is death’

National Action Party Senator Mario Vázquez of Chihuahua said that “for Chihuahua to present h2o close present is death.”

While helium was referring to the indispensable information that “water is life,” Mexico’s work to present h2o to the United States was a origin successful the decease of a pistillate successful Delicias, Chihuahua, successful 2020.

La Boquilla dam successful Chihuahua has been the tract of protests successful the past, erstwhile h2o from its reservoir was diverted to the United States. (Nomonday)

Yessica Silva and her hubby Jaime Torres, some farmers, came nether occurrence by the National Guard portion driving location successful September 2020 aft attending a protestation against the diversion of h2o to the United States astatine La Boquilla dam.

Silva died astatine the country portion Torres was earnestly wounded and spent 2 weeks successful the hospital.

Farmers successful bluish Mexico — wherever ample swathes of onshore are presently affected by severe, utmost oregon “exceptional drought and h2o levels successful galore reservoirs are debased — stay vehemently opposed to the diversion of h2o to the United States, meaning that the Mexican authorities volition look fierce absorption arsenic it seeks to placate its almighty bluish neighbor.

Mexico’s h2o indebtedness with the U.S. further emphasizes that addressing h2o scarcity is simply a large situation for the Sheinbaum administration, which presented a caller nationalist h2o program successful November and announced 17 h2o infrastructure projects past month.

With reports from Reuters and Expansión Política