Fact check: Border crossings and drug seizures are down, but Mexico and US can’t agree on how much

Both the fig of migrants detected by United States authorities aft illegally crossing the Mexico-U.S. borderline and the quantity of fentanyl seized astatine the borderline person importantly decreased this year.

The reductions bespeak that efforts connected some sides of the borderline to halt the introduction of migrants and narcotics to the United States are working, adjacent arsenic the U.S. authorities continues to unit its Mexican counterpart to bash much to stem these flows.

#Comunicado. El 16 de abril de 2025, el General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, Secretario de la Defensa Nacional, atendió una videollamada que se realizó a solicitud del General Gregory M. Guillot, Comandante del Comando Norte de los Estados Unidos de América. pic.twitter.com/M5ZgzkXiZd

— @Defensamx (@Defensamx1) April 17, 2025

Mexico’s Ministry of Defense (Defensa) referred to the reductions successful a connection issued connected Wednesday, successful which it noted that Defense Minister General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo had spoken connected a video telephone to General Gregory M. Guillot, commandant of the United States Northern Command.

“During the call, General Trevilla recognized the efforts made by the equipped forces of some countries successful coordination with the civilian authorities of each nation,” the ministry said.

Those efforts are “reflected successful the caller results provided by the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS), among which the pursuing basal out,” Defensa said. The connection mentioned:

• A 97% simplification successful the fig of “illegal crossings of the border” compared to “the aforesaid [unspecified] play of past year.”
• A 59% summation successful seizures of ammunition and parts of weapons compared to “the aforesaid [unspecified] play of past year.”
• A 70% simplification successful fentanyl seizures, “with 20,000 pounds of fentanyl, heroin and methamphetamine confiscated successful full (45% reduction) successful the past 90 days.”

Are the cited reductions for amerciable crossings and fentanyl seizures accurate? Exactly which periods are being compared?

Let’s delve into authoritative information to find out.

Migrant encounters 

A alleged “migrant encounter” refers to an lawsuit successful which United States authorities travel into interaction with and apprehend a idiosyncratic who has crossed the Mexico-U.S. borderline betwixt authoritative ports of entry.

The word “migrant encounter” is besides utilized by U.S. authorities to notation to interaction with a idiosyncratic who arrives astatine an authoritative larboard of introduction connected the borderline and is subsequently deemed to beryllium inadmissible.

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, 44,632 migrants were detected betwixt January and March aft crossing into the United States betwixt authoritative points of entry. These are the “illegal crossings of the border” that Mexico’s Defense Ministry referred to successful its statement.

The 44,632 “migrant encounters” reported by Defensa successful the archetypal 3 months of the twelvemonth correspond an 89% decrease, not a 97% decrease. (Shutterstock)

A examination betwixt the fig of detected amerciable crossings successful 1 play with the fig successful an earlier play tin beryllium made to find whether specified crossings are going up oregon down.

The 44,632 “migrant encounters” successful the archetypal 3 months of the twelvemonth correspond an 89% alteration compared to the 402,344 encounters successful the aforesaid play of 2024.

The simplification is so high, but not arsenic precocious arsenic the 97% alteration Defensa referred to successful its statement.

Perhaps the information the DHS supplied to the Defense Ministry refers to the year-over-year alteration successful amerciable crossings successful March. Let’s instrumentality a look.

CBP past period detected 7,181 migrants who crossed into Mexico betwixt authoritative ports of entry. That fig represents a simplification of astir 95% compared to the 137,473 “migrant encounters” successful March past twelvemonth erstwhile erstwhile U.S. president Joe Biden inactive occupied the White House.

So wherever does the 97% fig travel from? The White House provides the reply successful a connection issued connected April 1.

CBP nationwide encounters person dropped drastically since Biden & Harris’ disastrous borderline policies were reversed.

Thanks to @POTUS, our borders are present much unafraid than ever! pic.twitter.com/qgCMyVmAh2

— House Homeland GOP (@HomelandGOP) April 16, 2025

The 97% simplification is, successful fact, a examination betwixt the migrant apprehensions past period and those successful March 2022, erstwhile determination were 211,181 betwixt ports of entry.

Conclusion? The assertion successful the Defense Ministry connection — that determination was a 97% simplification successful amerciable crossings compared to “the aforesaid play of past year” — simply doesn’t stack up.

While the fig of “migrant encounters” has decreased importantly since United States President Donald Trump began his 2nd term, it should beryllium noted that amerciable crossings began to diminution aft Biden implemented a caller borderline argumentation past June.

Fentanyl seizures  

Fentanyl seizures astatine the borderline tin beryllium arsenic utilized arsenic a proxy to estimation whether the magnitude of the synthetic opioid entering the United States is going up oregon down.

Trump has focused intensively connected the proviso of fentanyl from Mexico to the United States, often highlighting that it has caused the overdose deaths of hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens. In March, helium imposed 25% tariffs connected each imports from Mexico and astir imports from Canada owed to what the White House said was the 2 countries’ nonaccomplishment to adequately stem the travel of “lethal drugs” specified arsenic fentanyl into the U.S. Those tariffs stay successful effect for non-USMCA-compliant goods.

CBP information shows that 2,330 pounds (1,057 kilograms) of fentanyl were seized astatine the borderline betwixt January and March. This fig represents a 49% simplification compared to the aforesaid play of past twelvemonth and a 47% diminution compared to the last 3 months of 2024.

So however was the 70% simplification calculated? The reply to that question is unclear.

Sheinbaum holds ‘productive’ telephone with Trump arsenic hostility looms connected commercialized and borderline issues

It appears that the fig astir apt comes from comparing fentanyl seizures astatine the Mexico-U.S. borderline past period (742 pounds) to those successful March 2023 (2,848 pounds). The diminution successful fentanyl seizures successful March compared to the aforesaid period 2 years earlier is simply a somewhat higher 74%.

The Defense Ministry’s connection that 20,000 pounds of fentanyl, heroin and methamphetamine were seized astatine the borderline successful the past 90 days is incongruent with CBP data, which shows a importantly larger magnitude of those drugs was confiscated.

5 takeaways 

• The statistic bespeak that the fig of migrants attempting to illegally transverse into the United States from Mexico, and attempts to smuggle fentanyl into the U.S., person declined importantly since Trump took bureau connected Jan. 20 and instantly declared a nationalist exigency astatine the border.
• The Trump administration’s stricter patrolling of the borderline and implementation of stricter borderline policies person surely been a large origin successful the simplification of amerciable crossings and cause smuggling successful caller months.
• Mexico tin instrumentality partial recognition for the reductions fixed that the national authorities led by President Claudia Sheinbaum has ramped up enforcement against cartels and migrants, including by deploying 10,000 National Guard troops to the bluish borderline successful aboriginal February arsenic portion of an statement with Trump to stave disconnected tariffs connected Mexican goods. Sheinbaum has attributed the diminution successful the quantity of fentanyl seized astatine the borderline to the summation successful confiscations of the almighty synthetic opioid successful Mexico, wherever the cause is manufactured with precursor chemicals illegally imported from China.
• The reductions successful some the fig of migrants and the quantity of fentanyl reaching the United States has not wholly appeased Trump. Late past month, the U.S. president said that Mexico has “stepped it up a lot” successful the combat against amerciable migration and narcotics, but conscionable this week helium asserted that the Mexican authorities is “very afraid” of cause cartels. While Trump lifted his “fentanyl tariffs” connected Mexican goods that comply with the USMCA escaped commercialized pact, they proceed to use to non-USMCA compliant products.
• Don’t instrumentality authorities statements and information astatine look worth (the United States alleged “reciprocal tariff” rates — which galore experts concluded are not successful information reciprocal — supply a bully illustration of the request to workout caution).

By Mexico News Daily main unit writer Peter Davies ([email protected])